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Datum: 22.09.2011

Turbulente Zeiten - wie entwickeln sich die asiatischen Märkte?

Die fallenden Kurse in der Alten Welt bescheren Investoren hohe Vermögensverluste. Im Fernen Osten boomen (noch) die Märkte. Die asiatischen Märkte können sich jedoch nicht abkoppeln von den Negativschlagzeilen - speziell wegen der Exportabhängigkeit. finanzwelt bat David MacKenzie, Produktmanager für asiatische Aktien (ex Japan) bei Schroders um einige Statements.

finanzwelt: Die Enttäuschung über das EU-Finanzministertreffen am vergangenen Wochenende hat die Märkte in Fernost nach unten gezogen. Geraten die asiatischen Finanzmärkte in einen nachhaltigen Abwärtsstrudel hinein?

David MacKenzie: Asia markets and indeed equity markets and other risk assets are under pressure given the poor sentiment in Europe and the US. Asia's economies are for the most part in quite good shape and the companies in Asia are offering very attractive yields and valuations along with relatively stronger long term growth prospects. However, despite a strong macro backdrop for Asia, until sentiment for risk assets changes, Asia will remain under pressure.

finanzwelt: Wie wirkt sich die Exportabhängigkeit gegenüber den europäischen und amerikanischen Märkten aus?

David MacKenzie: The US and Europe are important markets for Asia, but are not the most important markets for many economies. For example, China is the largest export market for Korea by a factor of 3 with the US and Japan being the 2nd and 3rd largest export markets. Indeed, growth in China and the rest of Asia has created a decreasing dependency on Western markets. That is not to say they are not important, but inter regional trade is a strong driver of growth.

finanzwelt: Ist die langfristige Wachstumsdynamik in Fernost noch intakt - koppelt sich Asien ab- oder stehen neue Regionen (beispielsweise Frontier Markets) nun im Fokus des Interesses?

David MacKenzie: Growth rates cannot be sustained at high numbers for ever. It is the law of large numbers as well as a reality that as markets develop, growth slows. China we expect will continue to have amongst the strongest growth in the world, indeed for any large economy. Still, it is not going to be growing at 10+% every year but more likely in the 6-8% range, which is very strong by all means as the second largest economy in the world. India's growth is also likely to slow in the face of higher inflation and tighter policy but we expect that India in the longer term will be as strong of a growth engine as China has been in the past decade. These two economies will have a profound impact on the growth rates of other Asia economies including frontier markets like Vietnam in the long term. However, as investors, one always needs to be careful to extrapolate economic growth with stock market performance. These do not always go hand in hand.

Das Gespräch führte Alexander Heftrich